纽约大学教授:美政策利率接近或略低于3%将成新常态

【中英文】纽约大学教授：美国政策利率接近或略低于3%将成新常态

纽约大学斯特恩商学院教授鲁里埃尔•鲁比尼（Nouriel Roubini）周一发表观点文章称，克拉里达加入美联储担任副主席，无疑使联储的天平向更偏鸽派的方向倾斜。随着宏观经济形势和政治环境出现重大变化，美联储在1月突然宣布暂停加息，并且很可能在今年大部分时间按兵不动，不过这并不能排除年底或2020年再次加息的可能。无论如何，美国政策利率接近或略低于3%将成为新常态。

过去几年，美国联邦储备委员会在货币政策正常化方面一直领先于其它主要央行。但现在，由于宏观经济形势和政治环境出现重大变化，美联储突然暂停了进一步加息。

Over the paST few years， the US Federal Reserve has been ahead of other major central banks in normalizing monetary policy． But now the Fed has abruPTly put further interest-rate hikes on hold， owing to key changes in macROEconomic conditions and the political environment．

美联储近期做出了一项出乎市场意料的重大政策转变。 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC） 2018年12月开会时将政策利率上调至2.25-2.5%，并暗示将再加息三次至3%-3.25%，然后停止加息。其还暗示，将继续削减资产负债表规模，每月最多削减500亿美元。但仅仅6周后，在1月下旬的FOMC会议上，美联储暗示将在可预见的未来暂停加息，并在今年某个时候暂停缩表。

The US Federal Reserve surprised markets recently with a large and unexPEcted policy change． When the Federal Open Market Committee （FOMC） met in December 2018， it hiked the Fed’s policy rate to 2.25-2.5%， and signaled that it would raise the benchmark rate another three times， to 3%-3.25%， before stoPPIng． It also signaled that it would continue to unwind its balance sheet， by up to $50 billion per month． But just six weeks later， at the FOMC meeting in late January， the Fed indicated that it would pause its rate hikes for the foreseeable future and suspend its balance-sheet unwinding sometime this year．

有几个因素推动了美联储的政策转变。首先也是最重要的是，决策者对FOMC去年12月会议之后金融环境急剧收紧感到不安，这次收紧加速了2018年10月开始的全球股市暴跌。而美元不断升值、以及某些信贷市场（尤其是高收益和杠杆贷款市场）实际上有可能处于关闭状态，都加剧了这些担忧。

Several factors drove the Fed’s volte-face． First and foremost， policymakers were rattled by the sharp tightening in financial conditions after the FOMC’s December meeting， which hastened a rout in global equity markets that had begun in October 2018． And these fears were exacerbated by an appreciating US dollar and the possibility of an effective shutdown of certain credit markets， particularly those for high-yield and leveraged loans．

第二，2018年下半年，美国核心通胀率出人意料地停止向美联储2%的目标水平攀升，甚至开始朝1.8%回落。随着通胀预期减弱，美联储被迫重新审议加息计划，该计划是基于较低的结构性失业率将推动通胀率超过2%的观点。

Second， in the latter half of 2018， US core inflation unexpectedly stopped rising toward the Fed’s 2% target， and even started falling toward 1.8%． With inflation expectations weakening， the Fed was forced to reconsider its rate-hike plan， which was based on the belief that structurally low unemployment would drive inflation above 2%．

第三，美国总统唐纳德•特朗普（Donald Trump）的贸易战，以及欧洲、中国、日本和新兴市场增长放缓，都已点燃人们对美国自身增长前景的担忧，尤其是在新年伊始美国联邦政府陷入长期停摆之后。

Third， US President Donald Trump’s trade wars and slowing growth in Europe， China， Japan， and emerging markets have raised concerns about the United States’ own growth prospects， particularly after the protracted federal government shutdown with which the US met the New Year．

第四，面对政治压力，美联储不得不展现其独立性。去年12月，当美联储暗示将进一步加息时，特朗普曾呼吁暂停加息。但自那以后，美联储不得不担心，万一经济陷入停滞，自己会受到指责。

Fourth， the Fed has had to demonstrate its independence in the face of political pressures． In December， when it signaled further rate hikes， Trump had been calling for a pause． But since then， the Fed has had to worry about being blamed in the event of an economic stall．

第五，备受尊敬的经济学家和市场专家理查德•克拉里达（Richard Clarida）在2018年秋季加入美联储，担任副主席，使FOMC的天平向更偏鸽派的方向倾斜。在此之前，美联储主席杰罗姆•鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）本身的鸽派倾向一直受到没那么偏鸽派的同僚以及美联储三号人物、纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰•威廉姆斯（John Williams）的遏制。威廉姆斯认为，随着劳动力市场趋紧，通胀率将逐渐超过目标水平。

Fifth， Richard Clarida， a well-respected economist and market expert， joined the Fed Board as vice chair in the fall of 2018， tIPping the balance of the FOMC in a more dovish direction． Before then， Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s own dovish tendencies had been kept in check by a slightly less dovish staff and the third member of the Fed’s leadership troika， New York Fed President John Williams， who expected inflation to rise gradually above target as the labor market tightened．

在通胀停滞和金融环境收紧的背景下，克拉里达的加入无疑对美联储按动暂停按钮起到了决定性作用。不过，克拉里达似乎也以更微妙的方式推动美联储重拾鸽派立场。首先，他的出现支持了鲍威尔的观点，即菲利普斯曲线（该曲线显示通胀率和失业率之间存在反向关系） 趋平可能更多是结构性的，而非暂时性的。美联储的一些研究人员不同意这种观点，他们发表了一篇论文，称菲利普斯曲线的不确定性不应阻止美联储使美国货币政策正常化。但随着克拉里达的加入，美联储将更倾向于关注实际的通胀趋势，而不是传统模型所预示的官方失业率及其影响。

The addition of Clarida amid stalling inflation and tightening financial conditions no doubt proved decisive in the Fed’s decision to hit the pause button． But Clarida also seems to have pushed the Fed toward renewed dovishness in more subtle ways． For starters， his presence lends support to Powell’s view that the flattening of the Phillips curve （which asserts an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment） may be more structural than temporary． Some Fed researchers disagree， and have published a paper arguing that uncertainty with respect to the Phillips curve should not stop the Fed from normalizing US monetary policy． But with Clarida’s input， the Fed will be more inclined to focus on actual inflation trends， rather than on the official unemployment rate and its implications under traditional models．

此外，尽管美联储工作人员倾向于认为美国经济的潜在增长率很低（约1.75 - -2%），但对于特朗普的减税和放松监管政策以及下一轮技术创新将加强非通胀式增长的观点，克拉里达与鲍威尔一样持开放态度。

Moreover， while Fed staff members tend to believe that the US economy’s rate of potential growth is very low （around 1.75-2%）， Clarida， like Powell， seems open to the idea that Trump’s tax cuts and deregulatory policies， combined with the next wave of technological innovation， will allow for somewhat stronger non-inflationary growth．

最后，克拉里达正牵头进行一项内部战略评估，以确定美联储是否应该开始通过在经济扩张时期允许通胀率高于目标水平，来弥补经济衰退和缓慢复苏时期低于目标水平的通胀率。尽管该评估仍处于初级阶段，但美联储似乎已经接受了这样一种观点，即通胀应被允许在不会立即引发紧缩的情况下超过2%。

Finally， Clarida is spearheading an internal strategy review to determine whether the Fed should start making up for below-target inflation during recessions and slow recoveries by allowing for above-target inflation during expansionary periods． And though the review is still in its early stages， the Fed already seems to have embraced the idea that inflation should be allowed to exceed 2% without immediately triggering a tightening．

综上所述，这些因素表明，美联储可能在2019年剩余时间保持暂停（加息）模式。毕竟，即使最近薪资增长温和加速，似乎也不会推高通胀，这意味着菲利普斯曲线可能会在更长时间内保持平坦。

Taken together， these factors suggest that the Fed could remain in pause mode for the rest of 2019． After all， even a recent modest acceleration of wage growth does not seem to have produced higher inflation， implying that the Phillips curve may stay flatter for longer．

不过，虽然美联储很可能在2019年大部分时间保持利率不变，但不能排除年底或2020年再次加息的可能性。中国的增长放缓似乎将见底，未来几个月可能会开始加速回升，尤其是如果当前的中美谈判缓解了贸易紧张局势的话。同样，避免经济性灾难的“硬退欧”的协议可能仍在酝酿之中，而且欧元区的放缓--尤其是德国的放缓--可能只是暂时的。

But while the Fed is most likely to remain in a holding pattern for the bulk of 2019， another rate hike toward the end of the year or in 2020 cannot be ruled out． China’s growth slowdown seems to be bottoming out， and recovery there could start to strengthen in the coming months， especially if the current Sino-American negotiations lead to a de-escalation of trade tensions． Likewise， a deal to avert an economically disastrous “hard Brexit” could still be in the offing， and it is possible that the eurozone’s slowdown – especially Germany’s – will prove temporary．

此外，由于美联储和其它央行再度采取鸽派立场，全球金融环境正在放松，并可能会转化为美国国内更强劲的增长。这将在很大程度上取决于特朗普是否会放弃对欧洲汽车行业发起的一项单独的贸易战，该贸易战可能将再次震动股市。不过，除非在美国联邦预算和债务上限问题上出现更多争执--更不用说可能对特朗普发起弹劾程序--否则，未来几个月美国国内不可能出现严重的政治和政策冲击。

Moreover， global financial conditions are easing as a result of the Fed and other central banks’ renewed dovishness， and this could translate into stronger US domestic growth． Much will depend on whether Trump abstains from launching a separate trade war against the European auto industry， which would rattle equity markets again． Yet， barring more fights over the US federal budget and the debt ceiling – not to mention possible impeachment proceedings against Trump – the US could be spared serious domestic political and policy shocks in the months ahead．

如果今年美国国内生产总值（GDP）增长确实富有韧性，那么薪资增长和物价通胀可能会随之加速，核心通胀甚至可能在今年下半年或2020年超过目标。尽管美联储似乎愿意容忍一段时间内通胀率暂时高于目标，但它不可能让这成为新的现状。如果这种情况在今年晚些时候或明年出现，美联储可能会将基准利率再提高25个基点，然后才会陷入长期的停顿。无论如何，新的常态将是美国政策利率接近或略低于3%。

If US GDP growth does remain resilient this year， some acceleration of wage growth and price inflation could follow， and core inflation may even rise above target in the second half of the year or 2020． And while the Fed seems willing to tolerate a period of temporary above-target inflation， it cannot allow that to become the new status quo． Should this scenario arise later in the year， or next year， the Fed could hike its baseline rate by another 25 basis points before settling into a protracted pause． Either way， the new normal will be a US policy rate close to or just below 3%．

注：纽约大学斯特恩商学院（Stern School of Business）教授、Roubini Macro Associates首席执行长鲁里埃尔•鲁比尼（Nouriel Roubini）曾在克林顿政府时期担任白宫经济顾问委员会（Council of Economic Advisers）负责国际事务的高级经济学家。他曾为国际货币基金组织、美联储和世界银行工作。（完）